Will China Invade Taiwan?
What is one to make out of the deteriorating relations between the US and China that has rapidly gathered pace as of late. Similarly, military tensions in the Pacific are rising. Taiwan has recently stated that China’s military exercises within its air defense buffer zone were the most significant threat to its security since Beijing launched missiles into the seas around Taiwan in 1996.
The rising tensions between China and Taiwan place the U.S. in a delicate position given its commitment to assist the latter defend itself. Could such intervention trigger a wider conflict that could go beyond the Pacific realm? Recent analysis suggests that such a possibility exists. Sometimes there is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others after subduing the popular unrest in Hong Kong, others argue.
High ranking officials at the Pentagon believe that China could invade Taiwan within the next 6 years owing to the fact that America is distracted by domestic issues.
Of note: China has been stocking up on weapons expanding its navy and drilling for amphibious operations: one of the most complicated because it entails precise coordination between air/land/sea forces at a massive scale. And China does not have experience in this space.
One thing is sure: Independent Taiwan is a political stain on the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, although the ruling government in Beijing has never exercised authority over Taiwan.
It remains to be seen whether China will embark on another path, besides military operation, to, peacefully, reunite Taiwan with the main land. Time will tell sooner than later, I hope!
David Oualaalou is a Geopolitical Consultant, Award Winning Educator, Veteran, Author, and former International Security analyst in Washington, D.C.